WUL Midseason Roundup

I love the Arizona Sidewinders + Your weekly dose of Kaela Helton propaganda

Apr 25, 2024

Announcements

Hello friends. My apologies for the lack of content over the last few weeks. I’ve been laying in bed doing nothing, trying to get over mono. And now I feel somewhat like a normal person, so we’re back!

Another interview piece is also on its way. I just need to summon the mental energy to edit it and get it out to you. I’m both very excited to finish and send it out and also dreading actually doing it, so stay tuned to see how I manage this classic conundrum. I may also become a backup(?) mascot for the Carolina Flyers. Stay tuned.

I love the Arizona Sidewinders

Before we head into some thoughts about the league, I must first share my love for the Arizona Sidewinders first. While this may be a very pro-Kaela Helton and San Diego Super Bloom publication normally, through my volunteer work keeping stats for the WUL, I have grown to love this Arizona Sidewinders team truly. It’s only natural when you’re responsible for watching and tracking every game a team plays that you develop a connection to that team.

While I love the Super Bloom because I appreciate ruthless greatness and dominance in an aspirational way, I love the Sidewinders because their journey is relatable. Through the Sidewinders, we can see every ultimate team there has ever been and ever will be. Their individual roles are incredibly clearly outlined (take a look at their offense-defense and handler-cutter scale charts compared to other teams), making for easy viewing. They play exciting ultimate and take games down to the wire every time. And perhaps most relatable, they are currently bashing their heads up against the wall, which is their undefeated division rival, San Diego Super Bloom.

The Sidewinders are currently 1-3, with just two games left in their regular season against the Bay Area Falcons to fight it out for the second spot in the Southwest Conference, which would get them a spot at Championship Weekend in Colorado. Despite their 1-3 record (tied for worst in the league, by the way), they have a -2 point differential across four games. In their two games against the 2024 favorites (Super Bloom, duh), they lost a heartbreaker that seemed destined for overtime in San Diego and then blew a 17-13 fourth-quarter lead at home. Their first loss of the season was also by two points, and it was to Colorado, the best team in the Northwest Conference. They have had the hardest schedule in the league so far.

Despite being notably bad (and a little unlucky) at closing games, what is so fun about this team is the talent and skill that jumps out from the screen every time you watch them play from every player on the roster. In my opinion, they are the most well-rounded team in the WUL. And based on their play so far, they can absolutely get over the hump if they can earn a third chance at the Super Bloom on Championship weekend.

They have my favorite O-Line handler group in the league: Chip Chang, Paige Applegate, and LP Aragon. They rotate through a small group of O-Line cutters that are all matchup problems in different ways: Nora Landri and Carley Garrett down the middle with speed, and Kez Gesell, Lindsey Doyle, and Lauren Pisani looking to use their size to open up the deep spaces on the field. Their D-Line handlers, especially Maggie O’Connor, Karli Steiner, and Kay Powell, are, to me, the protagonists, fighting the good fight, picking the disc up in rough spots, and trying to will their team to a break. And while admittedly, scoring as a D-Line has been occasionally a challenge, they roll deep on their D-Line cutters with a bunch of human highlight reels waiting to blow up the other team’s offense, with Marti Martinez, Cynthia Thomas, Melissa Dunn, and many others contributing.

I love this team so much because its vision is so clear. It feels like they have all the pieces, and they just haven’t managed to put them all together in the moments where the pressure is on the most. I can relate to being on teams with that exact issue. Partially because of that, I am rooting for them to consistently put together four full quarters of elite play down the stretch and to see what happens once they find that consistent level of play.

Kaela Helton is the most dominant player in professional ultimate, bar none

Okay, Sidewinders fans, here’s the part where you should probably look away if you came to read that previous section about your team because this one probably won’t make you feel much better. If you’re still reading, I am not liable for your emotional suffering in reliving last week’s game and fourth-quarter collapse.

For all those still here: HOLY CRAP, KAELA HELTON IS THE MOST UNSTOPPABLE FORCE IN PROFESSIONAL ULTIMATE. San Diego scored eight points in their game against Arizona last week in the fourth quarter. Here they are in chronological order, and Kaela Helton’s contribution to them:

She scored (hold)
She scored (hold)
Caught a 60-yard huck to flip the field and then threw the hockey assist (break)
Picked up the disc after a timeout, and threw the hockey assist (break)
Assist (hold)
No direct contribution — still did plenty on the possession though (break)
Assist (break)
No direct contribution — not on the field (break)

So let’s tally that up real quick: 2G/2A + 2 secondary assists out of seven scores that happened while she was on the field and eight total in the fourth quarter. That is unbelievable. They were down four a couple of minutes into the fourth quarter, and then Kaela Helton said, ‘Yeah, we’re not losing, lmao,’ and then they didn’t lose.

She has not been held under SIX goals + assists this season so far. Here is the WUL leaderboard in games with at least six goals plus assists this year so far:

Kaela Helton: 4

Han Chen1: 2

LP Aragon, Brooke Stanislawski, Abby Thorpe, Kendra Miller, Paige Kercher: 1

Everyone else: 0

Not to mention, her nine G+A (4G/5A) against Arizona last week is the most anyone has this season. And she added two blocks and had just 1.5 turnovers. I need to do the gamescore calcs2 soon because this one could be an all-timer.

Okay, so she’s clearly the most dominant player in the league, but what about in professional ultimate? Let’s compare her dominance to last year’s UFA MVP, Jeff Babbitt. Last year, Babbitt led the New York Empire to an undefeated championship season with 50G/2A/15B. Those are impressive numbers, for sure. His 52 direct goal contributions gave him a hand in 16.9% of New York’s total scores on the season. Helton is currently sitting at 30 direct goal contributions through four games and in a lower-scoring environment. She has directly contributed 40% of San Diego’s scores this year. Well over twice Babbitt’s rate.

Obviously, because of the scoring environment and rules changes, it’s hard to draw direct comparisons between the WUL and UFA. But given how much hype Babbitt generates in UFA circles online, I think Helton is more than deserving of the same level of attention and acclaim. And if I have to spearhead it, that’s just more fun for me.

Championship Weekend Looming

San Diego has already clinched a spot at Championship Weekend, leaving just three left. Two teams out of Colorado, Seattle, and Utah will make it, and one of Arizona or Bay Area will. I’ve spent some time looking at the team stats each team has put up so far and thought it’d be fun to look at why each team will and won’t make championship weekend:

Colorado Alpenglow

Why they’ll make it: Stride for Stride with San Diego

Some of the stats Alpenglow has put are uncannily similar to what Super Bloom is working with. For example, both teams are averaging a similar amount of breaks per game, are bottom two in turnovers committed per game, each have gained at least 50% of yards available, and are right on each other’s heels with their huck completion percentages. They’re different teams that play different styles (Colorado, unsurprisingly, shoots deep more often, for example). However, being just as turnover-averse and similarly efficient to the best team in the league (who you played tight already) is a good sign of things to come. They’re also the only other team besides San Diego that is above .500. Hard to argue with that.

Why they won’t: Issues generating turnovers

While they don’t turn the disc over as much as other teams in the league do, they don’t earn it back as often either. They have the league’s lowest block percentage, generating just 37.3% of turnovers that the other team throws. If they start giving away the disc at any higher rate than they do now and can’t ratchet up the pressure on the defense, they will have problems.

Seattle Tempest

Why they’ll make it: Championship DNA

Only one team in the WUL’s history has won the league. That’s Seattle. While the roster looks different, the team identity, belief in themselves, and the high talent level remain the same. They generate turns and huck the disc at above-average rates, and their ugly 10-7 win against Utah shows that this team can compete in its conference and grind out games when things aren’t going well.

Why they won’t: They are a bad team right now

Honestly, the stats do not paint a pretty picture of this team right now. Their putrid 41.8% Red Zone Efficiency mark is most disturbing, far and away the worst in the league. Perhaps unsurprisingly, their O-Line and D-Line efficiency numbers also ranked as league-worst, as does their break conversion percentage. They do play in probably the worst baseline conditions for ultimate that any team in the WUL does, but still, this is not good ultimate.

Utah Wild

Why they’ll make it: Living on the edge

Utah is an interesting team. They are 1-3, and unlike Arizona, they’ve lost to both teams in their conference already, so even more than the Sidewinders, they face an uphill battle to qualify for Championship Weekend. However, they have a roster full of stars who can put up big numbers (good and bad ones) and are in any game they play. They huck the disc better than any team in the league (min. 3 games played), and with players like Paige Kercher on their roster, they have the talent that can take over games more than maybe any team in the league, barring San Diego.

Why they won’t: Dying on the edge

They face a real uphill battle, though. They turn the disc over at a high rate, they don’t force opponent turnovers very often, and their efficiency numbers aren’t anything to write home about. And despite being efficient at hucking the disc, they don’t do it as often as other teams in the league. They don’t really have an identity or something to hang their hats on as a team right now, and unless they find that, it’s hard to imagine them running the table and sneaking in that second spot in the division, especially when both Seattle and Colorado have a game in hand.

Arizona Sidewinders

Why they’ll make it: I told you already, didn’t I?

We’ve been through this before, but the stats do mostly back up my arguments from earlier. Arizona is around the league average in most offensive and defensive efficiency stats despite being 1-3 and having a couple of stretches where it felt like they collapsed. And they've played San Diego twice. If they beat Bay Area twice, they’re almost certainly in.

Why they won’t: They’ve dug a hole that’s too deep

Look, 1-3 is not impossible to climb out of, and they can likely win a tiebreaker at 2-4. But that’s asking for a lot of help, and the Sidewinders are not good at converting breaks or completing hucks, two things that most good ultimate teams do well. Their backs are against the wall, just like Utah. Both teams must find their identity and play winning ultimate, or their seasons will end early.

Bay Area Falcons

Why they’ll make it: Air Raid

They’ve only played two games, so take the stats with a grain of salt, but wow, is Bay Area slinging the disc. They are completing over 70% of their hucks, and Han Chen has entered what I’ll call Kaela-Helton-takeover-mode in both of her games so far. The Falcons are averaging more yards per game than anyone else in the league while turning it over at a lower-than-average rate and forcing turnovers better than anyone else. They've looked like a championship contender on offense and defense for seven out of the eight (technically nine if you want to count overtime) quarters they’ve played.

Why they won’t: What happened at the end of that Utah game?

In a game that could look very silly depending on how the rest of each team’s season plays out, the Falcons collapsed late in Week 1 against the Wild and lost in overtime. In response, they went out and bodied the two-time defending champs, but considering that they’ve only played two games, we don’t know as much about this team as we do the rest of the league. How will they respond to adversity against San Diego? Will they be able to close out a game against Arizona? There are a lot of questions still to be asked of Bay Area. If they don’t respond, Arizona is waiting in the wings.

Who do you think will join the Super Bloom for Championship Weekend? Let me know!

Here is the spreadsheet I imported the team data into and worked off of for those interested.

P.S. please go watch this video

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This newsletter aims to tackle the gap in present coverage of ultimate as a sport. Commentary, analysis, and community are some of the guiding ideals behind the Breakside.

About the Author

My name is Noam Gumerman (he/him). I am from Chapel Hill, NC, and studied Journalism and American Studies at Brandeis University. I am a journalist by trade and have been playing ultimate for over half my life. I love nothing more than combining those two interests. Contact me for discussions, feedback, story suggestions, and more on Twitter (@noamgum) or email (noamgumerman@gmail.com).